which query are you using?
an index is only as good as the query using it.
so if you want to find head of states called 'smith' then both table defintions are the same
if you want to find the the headofstate with an ID of 45 then likewise
if you want to find the head of state who was inaugurated on the 21 April 1960 then the second definition should be faster.
however as no query can specify the index to use, that is done by the query optimiser at run time, its academic, the index can be HINTed at in the query though.
MySQL :: MySQL 5.1 Reference Manual :: 12.2.8.2 Index Hint Syntax
so you choice of column(s) to index should reflect the expected access methods in the queries.
ferinstance if you wanted to look at the lastname you might want to use a normal index or a "full text" index depending on what you are looking for
MySQL :: MySQL 5.0 Reference Manual :: 11.9 Full-Text Search Functions
So it depends on how you think the data will be accessed or manipulated.
bear in mind however that indexing is realtively trivial to revisit during the application's development and if need be after its gone into production. you shoudl examine your queries using the SHOW or EXPLAIN options on a quedry, you shoudl examine the slow queries log. you can alwasy add or modify indexes. adding or modifying columns is a far trickier prospect.